Blue Jays Dug Out

1. Curtis Granderson, LF
2. Devon Travis, 2B
3. Josh Donaldson, 3B
4. Justin Smoak, 1B
5. Russell Martin, C
6. Kendrys Morales, DH
7. Randal Grichuk, RF
8. Kevin Pillar, CF
9. Aledmys Diaz, SS

Probable bench: Teoscar Hernandez, OF; Luke Maile, C; Steve Pearce, INF/OF; Yangervis Solarte, INF

Troy Tulowitzki  will of course be the Jays' starting shortstop when healthy, but he  won't be ready for Opening Day because of bone spurs in his right heel.  Once Tulowitzki returns, he'll likely force Diaz to the bench and take  Hernandez's spot on the active roster (even with Tulowitzki out,  Hernandez is not a lock to make the Opening Day 25-man). 

1. Marcus Stroman, RHP
2. J.A. Happ, LHP
3. Marco Estrada, RHP
4. Aaron Sanchez, RHP
5. Jaime Garcia, LHP

Stroman  is the staff ace, but he's sidelined with shoulder inflammation and  won't be on the Opening Day active roster. Right now, though, it appears  Stroman will still be able to take his first turn, just not in the  season opener. 

Closer: Roberto Osuna, RHP
Setup: Ryan Tepera, RHP; Seung hwan Oh, RHP
Middle relief: Danny Barnes, RHP; Aaron Loup, LHP; John Axford, RHP; Tyler Clippard, RHP
Long relief: Luis Santos, RHP

Just  by eyeballing the names above, you can probably tell the Blue Jays  potentially have a strong rotation in place for 2018. Last season,  Toronto ranked a respectable seventh in the 15-team AL in rotation ERA  and rotation WAR, and that was despite getting just eight starts from  Aaron Sanchez, who was limited by serious blister problems. (Thus far,  Sanchez has been blister-free in camp.) The addition of Jaime Garcia,  provided he's healthy, should stabilize the fifth spot in the rotation. 

Speaking of all that, let's have a look at what the CBS Sports fantasy projections say about the Jays' rotation in 2018 ... 

Pitcher

Projected 2018 innings

Projected 2018 ERA

Marcus Stroman

173

3.69

J.A. Happ

183 2/3

3.33

Marco Estrada

169 2/3

4.03

Aaron Sanchez

160 1/3

3.65

Jaime Garcia

142 2/3

4.04

If  you're a Jays fan, then this is encouraging stuff. For context, the  average ERA for an AL starting pitcher last season was 4.54, and every  Jays starter is projected to best that mark by a wide margin. Once you  consider that Rogers Centre plays as a hitter's park, those projected  numbers become even better. In all, they're pretty much in line with  those pitchers' established levels of ability. 

The key, of  course, will be health. There's a big drop-off from those five names to  the other in-house options for the rotation. Last season, the Jays gave  53 starts to guys outside their top four. Garcia will eat up some of  those in 2018, which is of course by design. Overall, though, Toronto's  fortunes in 2018 will in large part hinge on how healthy these five  starters are. If they're generally able to answer the bell, then you're  probably looking at one of the best rotations in the AL. 

Injuries  in 2017 hit the Toronto infield pretty hard. Troy Tulowitzki was  limited to just 66 games because of hamstring, groin, and ankle  problems. Devon Travis continued to be beset by injuries, as he played  in just 50 games thanks to a bone bruise in his right knee. On top of  all that, MVP candidate Josh Donaldson was laid up for roughly a month  and a half with a calf injury. 

Donaldson raked upon his late-May  return to the lineup, but the Jays struggled to get adequate production  from the middle infield all season. Consider ... 

• Toronto shortstops in 2017 -- Ryan Goins had the most PAs at the position -- combined to hit just .240/.287/.368.
• Toronto second basemen in 2017 -- Darwin Barney had the most PAs at the position -- combined to hit just .241/.291/.367.

Those  bestowals are both very similar and very terrible. By trading for  Aledmys Diaz and signing Yangervis Solarte this offseason, the Jays are  hoping their fallback options are much better should injuries strike  Tulowitzki and Travis yet again (history suggests that's a strong  possibility). Diaz and Solarte aren't stars, but they should help the  Jays avoid such awful production from their respective positions should  they be pressed into regular duty. As well, the Rule 5 addition of Ivan Castillo and the trade for Gift Ngoepe  give the Jays another layer of options should it come to that. Solarte  in particular (career OPS+ of 105) figures to be an excellent depth  piece. 

That depth plus the hope for a full season from Donaldson should move the needle for the Toronto infield. 

Toronto  last season ranked last in the AL in runs scored and 14th in OPS even  though they played their home games in, as noted, a good park for  hitters. Donaldson still figures to have an MVP performance ceiling, and  Justin Smoak's breakout looks mostly repeatable, at least in the  near-term. Elsewhere, though, concerns abound. Curtis Granderson,  Russell Martin, and Kendrys Morales are all in their mid-thirties.  Randal Grichuk brings with him to Toronto a career OBP of .297. For  reasons noted above, better production from the infield is a reasonable  expectation, but even with that this figures to be a bottom-tier offense  in the AL. So, to repeat, that rotation really needs to be healthy.  

Donaldson,  as he proved after his return from injury last season, is still one of  the best players in baseball when healthy. He's also going into his walk  year. Trade rumors swirled about him this offseason, but the Jays  rightly want to see if they can contend in 2018. If things go poorly  from the start, then you might see Donaldson shopped leading up to the  non-waiver trade deadline. Otherwise, the Jays will hang onto him in the  hopes that they can snare a playoff berth. If recent reports are any  guide, then a contract extension seems less and less likely. In other  words, the 2018 season looks like it's going to be Donaldson's last in  Toronto. Soon enough, the Jays will begin building around top prospects Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Anthony Alford, and those plans may not include their franchise third baseman.